In a climate marked by rising gold prices, a weakening dollar, and shifting global powers, two former colleagues from Viland have chosen to embark on a bold entrepreneurial journey. Alex Gonçalves and Murilo Arruda have established Morada Capital, a new Brazilian asset management firm, at a time when local investors are retreating from risk.
Their venture aims to create a resilient investment framework designed for long-term growth and adaptability.
Gonçalves and Arruda assert that the current uncertainty presents a prime opportunity for building an investment firm that can withstand various economic climates, particularly during this period when concerns about government stability are driving interest towards safe-haven assets such as gold, bitcoin, and commodities.
The foundation of Morada Capital
According to Arruda, the core of Morada Capital’s inception lies not in the timing but in the shared values between him and Gonçalves. He emphasizes that finding the right partners is often more challenging than deciding when to launch a business. Their shared vision led to the establishment of a firm structured around collective accountability rather than individual dominance.
This organizational approach, as explained by Arruda, promotes a culture where all partners are equally invested in the firm’s success, aiming to eliminate personal biases and enhance collective discipline. The decision to enter the market during such a tumultuous time, characterized by a historical decline in the fund management industry, reflects a significant leap of faith.
Challenges and opportunities
Despite acknowledging the formidable challenges, Arruda perceives subtle signs of recovery in investor sentiment. “We are just beginning to witness a cautious shift in the appetite for risk among investors,” he remarked during an interview with Stock Pickers, hosted by Lucas Collazo. The duo elaborated on their rationale for pursuing this venture amidst current market conditions, arguing that the very uncertainties present in today’s economy could pave the way for fresh investment opportunities.
Gonçalves added that the Morada Capital’s investment philosophy is a direct response to the recent disillusionment experienced by many Brazilian investors. Having faced disappointing returns, local investors have increasingly gravitated toward safer instruments, such as CDBs. This prompted the Morada team to design a product capable of navigating the diverse scenarios that Brazil presents.
Global influences on local markets
In Gonçalves’ view, the fluctuations in Brazilian assets are increasingly influenced by external forces, particularly from Washington and Beijing, rather than solely domestic factors. He points out that the trends observed in Brazil closely mirror those in other emerging markets, including Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, driven largely by a depreciating dollar and expectations of interest rate reductions in the U.S.
He emphasizes that while the market environment up until September was favorable, the onset of October introduced uncertainties with the unexpectedly strong U.S. GDP figures reigniting concerns. Historically, when the U.S. economy outperforms the global landscape, it does not bode well for emerging markets.
The rise of gold and commodities
In this context, gold has emerged as a pivotal asset, reflecting a significant shift in global asset allocation. Currently, global reserves hold nearly equal proportions in U.S. Treasuries (24%) and gold (23%), a balance not seen since 1996. Gonçalves elaborates, “The devaluation of the dollar has become almost a universal understanding among investors. Gold has gained prominence as a protective asset, sought after by those looking to mitigate reliance on governmental stability.”
He further interprets the increase in gold and commodities prices as a direct response to rising global skepticism regarding fiscal responsibility and geopolitical stability. The growing unrest around the world has heightened investor anxiety regarding governmental capabilities, leading them to seek refuge in assets like gold, bitcoin, and various commodities.
China serves as a notable example of this trend, having been a consistent buyer of gold for years. This behavior underscores a global realignment as nations aim to reduce their dependence on the dollar and the U.S. economy.
Looking ahead
While diversification remains a key strategy for Gonçalves, he cautions that the American economy will serve as a crucial pivot point. The labor market exhibits signs of weakness, yet consumer spending and investment in technology remain robust. This duality creates a complex scenario reminiscent of the dollar smile theory, wherein the dollar strengthens during both crises and periods of U.S. economic growth.
Gonçalves insists that understanding the current position within this economic dynamic is critical. He notes, “If the U.S. economy continues to expand more rapidly than others, we may find ourselves reverting to the patterns observed a decade ago, where all market movements were dictated by American performance.”
Nevertheless, Morada Capital remains vigilant about domestic variables, with Gonçalves stating, “There is very little political risk factored into the market at this moment.” He refrains from speculating on the political landscape for 2026, mindful of the unpredictability of electoral outcomes demonstrated in recent years.
As the market strives for recovery, both Gonçalves and Arruda are confident that forthcoming cycles of appreciation will emerge from shifts in the economic landscape. They believe that Morada Capital is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities when they arise.